Brett Cooper — Polymarket Is Turning Wars Into A Casino

Guys, things have gotten so crazy in the world that I am out here agreeing with AOC. Like, uh, shutters. Horrifying. It's devastating. But, unfortunately, she made a great point recently about gambling. Now, if you guys watch the interview that I did on John Crist Show earlier this week, which you absolutely should, it was such a fun interview and I just adore him. But, if you watch that, then you probably know by now that there is one topic that my dear husband Alex has been begging me to discuss on this show.

And that is the intersection of the gambling markets and insider trading. And just to give you a window into our marriage, this is something that we discussed daily. Like, my husband has been monitoring this situation for months. And every time that we would talk about it, like my entire head would start to spin. I don't know if it's just me. I don't know if, you know, I'm just not a man. I don't follow betting. I'm not interested in, you know, Polymarket and Call Sheet.

I don't know what I would say. But, to his credit, he was right to continue pushing me. He was right to continue bringing it up. He's usually right about these sorts of things. And if you care, as I do, about calling out corruption and calling out hypocrisy, then this is just something that we cannot ignore. Even if you are not into the betting markets, even if you don't understand gambling, which is often where I find myself.

Because now, these days in the modern era, it's not just people with classified information going to Wall Street and making trades. They are now able to use that information on online betting sites. Not the stock market, but sites that allow you to gamble with people's lives. And it begs the question of whether our political system has been completely gamified. Now, before we dive into this topic, make sure that you like this video and subscribe to the channel if you have not already.

And if you have, thank you guys so much. I appreciate you being here. And if you want to stay up to date on everything we're doing here on this channel, make sure to ring that notification bell. Also, I have a couple new shows coming up at Zany's here in Nashville. So, if you want to get tickets for that, go to bretcooper.com. Bretcooper.com is your hub for all things. You can even toggle on over to Cooper Confidential, which is our subscriber site.

So, if you want all the behind-the-scenes content as well, you can find that there. Bretcooper.com. Bretcooper.com for tickets. See you there. Okay. So, I just have to point out the obvious. I think it's really funny that I'm sitting down to do this episode about hypocrisy and corruption and insider trading. And I'm wearing a freaking crocheted bandana. This is the best day of my husband's life. He loves when I wear hair accessories.

So, he's very excited about this. My friend Rose was just in Korea for a month and she brought this home for me and I've been very excited to wear it. It's like 75° here in Nashville. The sun is shining. I'm getting a tan by being outside working on the farm. So, it just felt like the day to pull out the floral crocheted bandana and talk about corruption. So, now, as you have probably gauged by the introduction, we are talking about Polymarket and Call Sheet today.

And the fact that they might be, allegedly, allegedly, possibly, presumably, the new homes for modern insider trading. So, Polymarket, they exploded during the 2024 election, where more than 3.3 billion dollars was waged on Trump versus Kamala. It is now valued at 9 billion dollars and it's partnered with leagues like the MLB, UFC as their official prediction market. So, it is now like fully in the mainstream. And as you probably know, Polymarket is not your normal betting site.

It's not like DraftKings. Like, its primary function is I guess it's just betting on random events. I think that's the best way we could describe it. Like, for example, users bet nearly $200,000 on whether Trump would smoke pot with Joe Rogan. They bet another 65K on if Kamala Harris during her campaign would say the word brat before August. People even bet on if and when Jesus is going to return, if the US will confirm that aliens exist, what year Taylor Swift will get pregnant, when her actual wedding is, where it is, all of these things.

They are even betting on Caroline Levitt's press conferences. And this is sort of where it starts to get interesting. Look at this. Uh, this is from January of this year, January 7th. Today's White House press briefing had a 98% chance of running over 65 minutes until Caroline Levitt abruptly ended it with seconds to spare. Traders on the no side, meaning that minority, the 2% that said she would not go over 65 minutes, made 50 times their bet in seconds.

Now, that clip right there from January 7th, that was the first time that I saw people questioning whether anyone within the Trump administration or within government at large wasn't on this. Because if you watch that press conference, if you're watching the clock run up, the way that she immediately ends it and walks off stage, her abrupt ending was almost too perfectly timed. Like, just it like it was almost too abrupt.

Like, someone maybe had private intel about her schedule, about where she had to go next, if she had a prior commitment, or possibly, maybe, she was doing something intentionally. Allegedly, allegedly, presumably, theoretically, is what I am trying to say. I'm not accusing anyone. I am just trying to point out what the internet has started to speculate and what they have started to notice in all these comment sections.

And you might say, "Okay, well, Bret, like what does that matter? It is a press conference. That kind of bet is harmless. I'm sure it's very regulated. I'm sure it's very illegal. Like, that cannot be happening." But, you would be wrong. You would absolutely be wrong. And honestly, something being illegal has never stopped our government in the first place. So, we can just go ahead and mark that down. But, anyway, back to the point.

While the app Call Sheet, cuz these are two different groups, while Call Sheet has stricter laws in place, Polymarket, which is arguably the more popular site, it's the one that I come across most frequently on social media, they operate offshore. They do not require traditional ID verification to sign up. And they use crypto wallets instead of bank accounts. And obviously, cryptocurrency is lauded as this thing that is very private and secure.

It is anonymous. And so, while I, somebody who has never bet anything, does not spend any time on these apps, like literally has never interacted with them, I initially saw these two platforms as being synonymous. But, there is a big difference and this is going to be important. Listen to this. Call Sheet is generally considered more regulated than Polymarket within the US because it is a direct, federally regulated exchange approved by the CFTC.

Call Sheet operates under strict CFTC oversight, whereas Polymarket is considered more crypto-native and has only recently expanded its US presence, having faced more scrutiny over its decentralized, international structure. Now, what I also didn't know is that Polymarket actually was not legal in the United States until the middle of last year. And it actually is still not legal in every state. And while Polymarket does seem more secure and anonymous based on all of that information, it's not totally untraceable.

Because every transaction is recorded on the blockchain. And so, while your name is not attached publicly, that wallet, that crypto wallet can often be traced back to you or back to a certain individual even if they do not have all of your information, especially if you have ever bought crypto through a platform like Coinbase prior to this. So, it is not fully anonymous. It is just harder to track than, let's say, the stock market.

Because we already know that everyone and their mother can just watch what Nancy Pelosi and her husband are trading on a daily basis. And if you're smart, you're following that and making a bunch of money. Anyway, I will say, as Alex and I have been talking about this entire thing literally since January, I've debated doing this episode and I debated angling it more just to talk about the rise of gambling as a vice in our society, how we are seeing young people blow all of their money on these ridiculous bets.

But, like I said, it has become abundantly clear that we cannot ignore this. And I think that this warranted a more targeted, tailored story. Because now, allegedly, allegedly, presumably, possibly, this platform is giving elected officials or just people with intel free reign to make money off of this classified information and possibly creating incentives for people in power to make certain moves. Placing a bet or having somebody place a bet and then taking an action that results in profiting off of that bet.

Now, again, I'm not accusing anyone specifically. We're just pointing out what we are noticing. So, take a look at this story from earlier this week. A trader made nearly $1 million since 2024 from dozens of well-timed Polymarket bets that correctly predicted US and Israeli military actions against Iran, according to an analysis shared with CNN. The better won a staggering 93% of their five-figure wagers about Iran, even though the events they predicted were unannounced military operations.

The trader has had a pattern of Russian bets, including hours before Israeli strikes in October of 2024 during its tit-for-tat conflict with Iran, hours before US air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities in June of 2025, and hours before the joint US-Israeli surprise attack in February, which started the current war. Quote, "All of this is strong signaling of insider activity based on the amount they made, the markets they bet on, and the timing of their trades, the success rates of those trades, and the fact that they are connected on chain, the same account.

This is pretty suspicious in my book." And they go on and they write, "It isn't clear whether the trader flagged by Bubble Maps is an insider, and the accounts they use are anonymous and can't publicly be traced back to a specific person." Like, guys, these apps, if if this is insider trading, has completely changed the game. Like, this is crazy. And it is far from an isolated incident. Look at this. Um, this was posted February 28th.

Um, a three-day-old Polymarket wallet made $493,000 in profit from the US strikes in Iran. Brand new account, placed three bets, profited on all of them. Here's another. It's not just one wallet anymore. A group of fresh wallets, new accounts, has now loaded over $2 million on the exact same outcomes. These are multiple bets they're doing. US forces enter Iran by April 30th. No US entry in Iran by March 31st. No ceasefire by March 31st.

Potential profit is over $2,500. Now, in a full summary on X, one user wrote, "This is the pattern that no one wants to acknowledge. In February, six newly created wallets on Polymarket made $1.2 million betting on the exact timing of the attacks in Iran. All created and funded in the previous 24 hours. No betting history." In January, a new account made $436,000 betting on Maduro's capture hours before the US invaded Venezuela.

Days ago, 10 new wallets appeared betting $160,000 on a ceasefire by the end of March. Same profile, no history, created the same time. Potential payout over a million dollars. Yesterday, all of those accounts exploded in profit. You'd go to federal prison for trading on a tip from your cousin. These people are front-running war decisions with billion-dollar bets and no one asks a single question. With every policy, tariff, or war announcement, the same pattern repeats.

Massive trades minutes before, instant profits, and zero consequences. The game's rigged and they're not even trying to hide it anymore. Well, they don't have to hide it because it's anonymous. It can't be traced back to them or their businesses by us in the public. And currently, there is not any stronger specific legislation regarding these betting sites that are stopping them from doing this. So, obviously, people have started getting concerned.

And I think we have to be fair, and we have to ask, you know, is this just very lucky people? Are these people that are just addicted to gambling with money to blow? Or is there something more corrupt and sinister going on? Now, in my opinion, there is definitely something sinister happening with American dog food, and that is why Alex and I trust Sunday's Food for Dogs. And when it comes to your dogs, it always seems like there is a compromise when it comes to their food.

It is either fresh and healthy, or it's convenient, easy to store and serve, which is why I love Sunday's for Dogs because it means I don't have to compromise on anything. Because starting 10 years ago, after a cancer scare with my old beloved Great Pyrenees, Ollie, my mom and I made the decision to switch all of our dogs to a low-carb diet. We were ahead of the keto phase, but we had to make it completely ourselves.

We sourced all the meat from local butchers, we ground it, we had to then find ways to store this like bloody mess in our freezer. It was just awful, but it was worth it. Now, you know, 10 years later, Alex and I have multiple Saint Bernards with allergies and chronic ear and yeast infections, and we have tried literally every convenient frozen raw food on the market. And with how much they eat and with storing and handling the food, it was just so hard, so messy, but it was worth it again because we didn't want to compromise and just go get her kibble, which is why we love Sunday's Food for Dogs, and we love their air-dry technology, and thank goodness we found them.

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Get 3 months free at hallow.com/cooper. Again, go download the app or go to hallow.com/cooper, and you will get 3 months free. Now, back to the point on whether these are just lucky guesses or whether this is sinister, I would personally argue that choosing to bet on the lives of American servicemen, bet on the fate of their families, is sinister in and of itself, but that is just me. So, already I'm drawing the line in the sand on this.

It grosses me out. Um but in regards to this entire story, here is something even crazier that I think just lends itself to the overarching idea of corruption and hypocrisy. Because, to be fair, Trump is not the first president to have to deal with, you know, the betting markets and insider trading. It has become an absolute behemoth of a beast that everyone is having to deal with. And under Biden, Polymarket was actually being investigated for illegally operating in the United States.

The founder was raided by the FBI, had his phone taken, the whole nine yards. And during his 2024 campaign, Trump ran, obviously, on, you know, transparency and ending corruption and ending insider trading. But interestingly, by July of last year, the investigation into Polymarket was suspended, and Polymarket then had a pathway for operating here in the United States. Now, to take this even further, coincidentally now, Donald Trump Jr.

sits on the advisory board with his investment firm being a significant backer of Polymarket's legal return to the United States market. Father and son. Now, again, I am not trying to accuse anyone. Allegedly, allegedly, allegedly, I'm just trying to point out things that I am seeing, but this is a pattern that people have noticed online. It is something that Alex started noticing like in December, and now it is becoming a bigger and bigger conversation every single day, and the stakes are getting higher and higher.

CNN is writing about it. Axios is writing about it. Axios actually posted just a couple days ago and said, "An epidemic of suspicious trading has emerged around Trump's most consequential decisions each time just minutes or hours before he rattles global markets." It is precisely the kind of alleged corruption that Trump built his political career railing against. So, I do want to be clear, I am not accusing Trump of anything.

I'm not saying that he went and told people and people in his family are doing things. I don't know if that is the case, but obviously, it's not just him making these decisions. He cannot take all of his military action alone in the dead of night without other people knowing. Word does get around. And so, what I am more inclined to believe is that there are people in his orbit. If they then talk, then people are making money.

It is just a slippery slope. Now, Surovell actually, to his credit, went even further talking about the gamification of this, and he posted this. He said, "Our armed forces members will be killed in order for insider traders to make a profit. This is treason. But new MAGA, whatever that means today, doesn't care. They are probably in on it." And unfortunately, they kind of are, from top to bottom. And you might be wondering, you know, why has this not become a bigger topic of conversation?

Why is everybody not doing episodes about this when we were so excited about ending corruption and DOJ and transparency and all of the things? Well, one of the reasons why you're probably not hearing about it is because most people are sponsored by either Kalshi or Polymarket. I mean, just take a look at this screen grab that somebody screen recorded and posted, and take note of the paid partnership label under most of these organic reposts that you are seeing right here.

Now, to be fair, I want to say I like a lot of these people. I am even friends with a couple of them. This is not to shame anyone for working with an advertiser that I would not or not talking about a specific issue. I'm not here to create any issue. I just do think that this is relevant information as to why this might not be a bigger story. And what is even crazier, guys, is that Polymarket has hands in every single side.

Every single faction within the right, they're on the left. Like, for example, they have Matt Gaetz and Lauren Boebert to do the same campaign, to repost the same post. They have the Krasenstein, Krazenstein, whoever they are, they have those brothers. They have Harry Sisson even on payroll. Everybody is being paid. Now, on top of that, they are actively trying to bring in more and more journalists to sponsor, which you can see here.

This is an article from The Verge. "Prediction markets are trying to lure journalists with partnership deals." Now, as I said, all of this has been blowing up over the last month as people have started to put the pieces together, and you see these new accounts making all of this money. And so, coincidentally, both of these companies, Polymarket and Kalshi, announced literally just 3 days ago that they would be putting new guardrails in place.

This article reads, "Kalshi on Monday said that it would preemptively block politicians, athletes, and other relevant people from betting on their own campaigns or sporting events." So, there's something at least. The same day, Polymarket announced that it would impose its own guardrails to address insider trading and market manipulation. And simultaneously, as they made those announcements, some members of Congress announced that they are pushing for new legislation to do the same thing, but just on the federal level.

And so, that has landed me here doing this episode and agreeing agreeing with AOC when she posted this. She said, "This is sad. I know as a politician, these companies are going to spend a billion dollars against me for saying it, but pervasive gambling is not good for society. It turns life into a casino, it traps people in addiction and debt, it surges domestic violence, and it fosters manipulation." And she's not wrong.

It is a net negative on every level. Now, I did appreciate people pointing out the absurdity of her saying this and then having so many tweets over the years saying sex work is real work. There's no problem with sex work. Like, you could literally replace gambling with sex work, and the the message of the tweets would be the exact same, and they would be just as honest. But that's an episode for another day. I'm not here to debate that, but I did just want to get that jab in there.

But again, she's correct. It is both a personal vice that is awful for our society. I think it is incredibly pervasive, especially with young men. And now, it could be allegedly, possibly allegedly, fueling more corruption and the manipulation of markets where the elites get richer by betting on our futures. So, the question that I am asking is that if the incentive is there to bet and then take action based on those bets, then where does that land us in what our government is doing?

Is it actually for our benefit? Is it actually to protect our futures and protect America? Or is it for something else? That's the question I have. Now, the last thing that I will say is that while people are starting to look towards, you know, Kalshi and Polymarket, the shady behavior on Wall Street has not let up. That might be old school in 2026, but guys, it is still happening because the most recent example of it is that at 7:00 a.m., it's just like so typical.

At 7:00 a.m. on Monday, before the US markets open for the week, Trump posted this on Truth Social, basically saying that he was postponing future strikes against Iran and that they were working on a resolution. Now, that didn't really last for very long, but at the time, people were really excited about a ceasefire. But look what happened just mere minutes, less than 15 minutes before that tweet. 15 minutes before that Donald Trump post, there was a very big amount of trading volume.

Very big. In fact, actually, when you're looking at that amount of of volume, that spike, um that was the biggest trading volume that we saw that day. We're starting here just at 8:00 in the morning. We're going through to that moment of the Donald Trump post. Um relatively quiet volumes. Not much going on in the market. And then all of a sudden, that. And if you're wondering, okay, maybe this was just a one-off. It was someone who made a lucky bet.

Have a look not just at this. So, this is WTI. It's one measure, the US measure of oil. Have a look at Brent, which is the kind of the European, seen as the international measure of oil. Again, the same thing. Donald Trump makes this post. Flurry of activity. Lots of people there. But look at that. Again, 15 minutes before that Donald Trump post, a very big trade. Now, it's unclear whether it's just individual an individual or whether it's a kind of group of people.

But what you do know from just imputing what the potential value, the notional value of those trades just on oil would be, it is staggering amounts of money. Life-changing amounts of money. $580 million. Now, allegedly, this individual, this group, this collective made over $100 million, I think, in 20 minutes. 20 minutes. Like, I'm not even This should impact me, but I'm not even surprised anymore. Like, and again, do we keep calling this just a lucky bet?

A a lucky guess? Or is it a game that us plebs don't get to play? Because we have seen this time and time again. And with Polymarket and Kalshi, we are just seeing the modern iteration of this game. But with fewer guardrails and less transparency. So, yeah, I think we have the right to be asking these questions. Oh my gosh, I just got my phone bill, and it is absolutely insane. I've got to call and figure out what's going on.

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